Determining Who Voted in Historical Elections: An Aggregated Logit Approach
نویسنده
چکیده
The ecological fallacy literature suggests aggregate data cannot be used for microlevel inference. Building upon an aggregated logit model developed by Kelejian (1995), I am able to show that the estimated coefficients from aggregate data regressions are directly related to the true underlying microcoefficients, so meaningful interpretations can still be made. It is also suggested that in the cases where aggregation bias can be rejected, the microcoefficients can be directly estimated. An application of the model is shown using state-level data for historical elections in which survey data are unavailable. r 1997 Academic Press
منابع مشابه
Some Notes on Voting Schemes and the Will of the Majority*
This paper is a study in the theory of committees and elections. By a committee we will mean any group of people who arrive at a decision by means of voting. By a voting scheme I we will mean any method by which individual voting decisions are aggregated into committee decisions. Given various voting schemes we shall examine three techniques by which members may seek to manipulate committee dec...
متن کاملThe Challenges of the Elections Systems of Persian Gulf Arab Countries
This article intends to clarify views regarding important challenges that have originated from the political, social, cultural and geopolitical structures in the elections systems of Persian Gulf Arab countries. Challenges that determine the compatibility levels of elections systems of these countries with the world’s democratic systems. An efficient elections system is the prerequisite for the...
متن کاملParTiciPaTion of Young african americans esPeciallY sTrong
Nearly two million more young Americans under the age of 30 voted in the 2008 presidential elections as compared to the 2004 elections, according to new Census data analyzed and released by CIRCLE. The increase is a continuation of the trend observed in the 2004 and 2006 elections. Youth turnout was 11 percentage points higher than in 1996, which was the low point after decades of decline. Whil...
متن کاملNorms in Bargaining: Evidence from Government Formation in Spain
Theories of multilateral bargaining and coalition formation applied to legislatures predict that parties’ seat shares determine their bargaining power. We present findings that are difficult to reconcile with this prediction. We use data from 2,898 municipal Spanish elections in which two parties tie in the number of seats. The party with slightly more general election votes is substantially mo...
متن کاملAn Experiment Testing the Relative Effectiveness of Encouraging Voter Participation by Inducing Feelings of Pride or Shame
Prior experimental research has demonstrated that voter turnout rises substantially when people receive mailings that indicate whether they voted in previous elections. This effect suggests that voters are sensitive to whether their compliance with the norm of voting is being monitored. The present study extends this line of research by investigating whether disclosure of past participation has...
متن کامل